NFL Pick'em Pool Strategy, Confidence Rankings: Straight Up Picks Week 8 (2024)

by Nick Galaida (nickgalaida) Last Updated 2023-10-26 17:49:03

2023 NFL Pick’em

Each week in this article, I will rank each of my selections in order of confidence and provide reasoning on all of my top picks.

As a disclaimer, these picks lock on Thursday afternoon for the purposes of this article, which is, of course, prior to getting final injury reports for the week. If looking for any last-minute thoughts or wishful changes to these selections, make sure to join the RotoGrinders discord and follow @CommishFilmRoom on Twitter.

NFL Week 8 Pick’Em Pool Confidence Rankings

Week 8 Selections

NFL Pick’Em Pool Strategy Week 8

Chiefs (vs. Broncos)

We typically advise proceeding cautiously with division rivalry games in this article each week, but this is one of the few exceptions. This is the most well-rounded Kansas City roster in the Patrick Mahomes era, which of course comprises two Super Bowl trophies and three appearances in the final game of the season. According to Aaron Schatz, the Chiefs are the first team since the 1999 Rams to rank in the top-five in offensive, defensive, and special teams DVOA through the first seven weeks of a season. Denver beat Green Bay last weekend, but that had more to do with Green Bay missing field goals and inexplicably throwing a deep interception on the final drive of the game than anything else. The Chiefs continue to rank among the best teams each week in defensive pressure rate, while the Broncos continue to be among the worst teams in the league in this category. This is a lopsided matchup, even if Kansas City does not play their best game. Mahomes and company should be able to get the job done here.

Lions (vs. Raiders)

In Week 7, the Raiders had the fourth-lowest defensive pressure rate of any team in the NFL. This was particularly notable, considering they played the Chicago Bears, which had only one win through their first six games. Defensive coordinator Patrick Graham openly admitted that his team has struggled with tackling, and will place extra emphasis on that area of the game during practice this week. Per Vic Tafur, the Lions lead the NFL in yards after the catch in 2023. On the other side of the ball, head coach Josh McDaniels was accused by the local media this week of “coaching scared” due to his limitations at the quarterback position.

The Lions are only 7-5 at home in their last 12 regular season games, but each of their five losses have come by four points or less to talented teams – the Eagles, Seahawks (twice), Dolphins, and Bills. The Raiders do not qualify as a talented team, and Las Vegas has lost 10 of their last 13 road games overall. According to Clevanalytics, home favorites of between 7-14 points won 82.1% of their games straight up from 2018 to 2022. Dan Campbell should be able to get his team to put together a bounce-back performance on Monday, following an embarrassing loss to the Ravens in Week 7.

Ravens (vs. Cardinals)

Though it is tempting to quickly buy “good news” in the NFL, more often than not, a larger body of work will yield more predictive accuracy than overreacting to one win. The nice thing about the Ravens is that the larger body of work aligns with the recent “good news” we saw last weekend when they trounced the Lions. Lamar Jackson has been outstanding to begin the new campaign, ranking 9th in passer rating from a clean pocket and 2nd in passer rating when under pressure. Baltimore’s defense ranks 2nd in EPA/play and 2nd in success rate through seven weeks of action, while Arizona’s defense ranks 29th in EPA/play and 32nd in success rate in 2023. Travel is somewhat of a concern, with the Ravens potentially still feeling the effects of their international adventure to some degree. However, even a trip out west should not be enough to derail a Baltimore team that is firing on all cylinders right now.

Dolphins (vs. Patriots)

Intra-division games are a breeding ground for upsets, due to the familiarity that both teams have with one another from playing each other twice each season. Nevertheless, Miami should be able to take care of business here against a New England team that has a significant amount of talent on injured reserve – including linebacker Matt Judon and defensive backs Christian Gonzalez, Marcus Jones, and Jack Jones. The Dolphins have lost two games this fall, both of which came against teams that have – 1) a high-powered offense; 2) a defense capable of getting pressure on Tua Tagovailoa. New England’s defense managed to get a good amount of pressure on Josh Allen in Week 7, but that had more to do with Allen holding the ball too long than anything else. In the previous two weeks, the Patriots ranked worst and 3rd-worst in defensive pressure rate among all NFL teams. This contest might be slightly more competitive than the spread is indicating, but the Dolphins are the superior team and playing at home, which makes them a relatively trustworthy option this weekend.

Chargers (vs. Bears)

Seemingly every year in the Justin Herbert era, the Chargers enter the season as a sexy sleeper team to finally contend for a championship. Through seven weeks this fall, they once again find themselves underperforming expectations with a 2-4 record and a negative 11-point differential. Fortunately for Brandon Staley and the rest of his team, this group gets an extremely favorable home matchup in Week 8 against the Chicago Bears, which will be starting a backup signal caller for the second consecutive week. The Chargers defense has been better under the surface since their bye week, getting pressure on 32.8% of opposing dropbacks in Week 6 and 29.4% of opposing dropbacks in Week 7. During that stretch, their EPA/play and success rate are both worse than the league average, but that should change this weekend against a less talented opponent, following back-to-back games against the Cowboys and Chiefs. It’s never fun trusting Brandon Staley, but it’s difficult to see them losing this game outright.

2023 Weekly Results

Week 1: 11-5
Week 2: 10-6
Week 3: 9-7
Week 4: 12-4
Week 5: 7-7
Week 6: 9-6
Week 7: 5-8

2022 Weekly Results

Week 1: 10-5-1
Week 2: 8-8
Week 3: 13-3
Week 4: 9-7
Week 5: 11-5
Week 6: 8-6
Week 7: 7-7
Week 8: 12-3
Week 9: 10-3
Week 10: 7-7
Week 11: 11-3
Week 12: 11-5
Week 13: 8-6-1
Week 14: 8-5
Week 15: 11-5
Week 16: 8-8
Week 17: 10-5-1
Week 18: 9-8

2021 Weekly Results

Week 1: 10-6
Week 2: 10-6
Week 3: 15-1
Week 4: 9-7
Week 5: 13-3
Week 6: 9-5
Week 7: 10-3
Week 8: 8-7
Week 9: 9-5
Week 10: 5-8-1
Week 11: 8-7
Week 12: 7-8
Week 13: 11-3
Week 14: 12-2
Week 15: 11-5
Week 16: 11-5
Week 17: 13-3
Week 18: 10-6