Figure 4: IS-K Activity & U.S./NATO Airstrikes 2017-2018[37]
United States Response
U.S. policy indicates the recognition of—and response to—the threat posed by IS-K and the escalating violence it has provoked in Central Asia. The U.S. Department of State designated IS-K as a Foreign Terrorist Organization on January 14, 2016, and United States Central Command has escalated its air campaign against the group since 2016 when rules of engagement expanded under President Obama and President Trump.[38] According to data compiled by ACLED, U.S. and NATO airstrikes against IS-K have been conducted over 300 times since January 2017. Though the group’s presence across Afghanistan is increasing, airstrikes have been nearly exclusive to Nangarhar and Kunar provinces (96 percent of all airstrikes since January 2017) in an effort to target operational bases and leadership.[39] All in all, while IS-K’s goal of establishing an Islamic state in Central Asia remains improbable, its propensity for exploiting grievances, catalyzing instability, and taking advantage of ungoverned spaces will make peaceful reconciliation and nation-building in Afghanistan difficult for the foreseeable future.
This terrorism backgrounder was compiled by Clayton Sharbwith assistance from Danika Newlee and the CSIS iDeas Lab.
©2018 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. All rights reserved.
[1] Khorasan comes from the Persian language and means “where the sun arrives from”; Markham Nolan and Gilad Shiloach, “ISIS Statement Urges Attacks, Announces Khorasan State,” vocativ, January 26, 2015, https://www.vocativ.com/world/isis-2/isis-khorasan/; LWJ staff, “Islamic State appoints leaders of ‘Khorasan province,’ issues veiled threat to Afghan Taliban,” FDD’s Long War Journal, January 27, 2015, https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2015/01/islamic_state_appoin.php.
[2] Seth G. Jones, “Expanding the Caliphate: ISIS’ South Asia Strategy,” Foreign Affairs, June 11, 2015, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/afghanistan/2015-06-11/expanding-caliphate; Data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project, updated October 12, 2018.
[3] “Treasury Sanctions Major Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant Leaders, Financial Figures, Facilitators, and Supporters,” U.S. Department of the Treasury, September 29, 2015, https://www.treasury.gov/press-center/press-releases/Pages/jl0188.aspx.
[4] LWJ staff, “Pakistani Taliban Splinter Group Again Pledges Allegiance to Islamic State,” FDD’s Long War Journal, January 13, 2015, https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2015/01/video_pakistani_tali_2.php; “Pakistani Taliban Vow Support for ISIS fighters,” Al Arabiya News, October 5, 2014, https://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2014/10/05/Pakistan-Taliban-pledges-support-to-ISIS-.html; Islamuddin Sajid, “Hafiz Saeed Khan: The Former Taliban Warlord Taking ISIS to India and Pakistan,” International Business Times, January 19, 2015, https://www.ibtimes.co.uk/hafiz-saeed-khan-former-taliban-warlord-taking-isis-india-pakistan-1484135; Ankit Panda, “Meet the 'Khorasan Shura': The Islamic State's Leaders for South Asia,” The Diplomat, January 29, 2015, https://thediplomat.com/2015/01/meet-the-khorasan-shura-the-islamic-states-leaders-for-south-asia/; Franz J. Marty, “The Looming Specter of Daesh in Afghanistan,” Foreign Policy, February 9, 2015, https://foreignpolicy.com/2015/02/09/the-looming-spectre-of-daesh-in-afghanistan/.
[5] Borhan Osman, “The Islamic State in ‘Khorasan’: How It Began and Where It Stands Now in Nangarhar,” Afghanistan Analysts Network, July, 27, 2016, https://www.afghanistan-analysts.org/the-islamic-state-in-khorasan-how-it-began-and-where-it-stands-now-in-nangarhar/; Amir Wasim, “President Signs KP-Fata Merger Bill into Law,” Dawn, May 31, 2018, https://www.dawn.com/news/1411156.
[6] Borhan Osman, “The Islamic State in ‘Khorasan’: How It Began and Where It Stands Now in Nangarhar.”
[7] Borhan Osman, “The Shadows of ‘Islamic State’ in Afghanistan: What Threat Does It Hold?” Afghanistan Analysts Network, February 12, 2015, https://www.afghanistan-analysts.org/the-shadows-of-islamic-state-in-afghanistan-what-threat-does-it-hold/; Don Rassler, “Situating the Emergence of the Islamic State of Khorasan,” CTC Sentinel, Volume 8, Issue 3, March 2015, https://ctc.usma.edu/situating-the-emergence-of-the-islamic-state-of-khorasan/.
[8] Amira Jadoon, Nakissa Jahanbani, and Charmaine Willis, “Challenging the ISK Brand in Afghanistan-Pakistan: Rivalries and Divided Loyalties,” CTC Sentinel, Volume 11, Issue 4, April 2018, https://ctc.usma.edu/challenging-isk-brand-afghanistan-pakistan-rivalries-divided-loyalties/.
[9] United Nations Security Council (UNSC), Ninth Report of the Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team Submitted Pursuant to Resolution 2255 (2015) Concerning the Taliban and Other Associated Individuals and Entities Constituting a Threat to the Peace, Stability and Security of Afghanistan (S/2018/466), May 30, 2018, https://undocs.org/S/2018/466.
[10] “IS Fighters in Salah al-Din Celebrate Pledge of Khorasan Province in Video, Behead Police Official,” SITE Intelligence Group, February 11, 2015, https://ent.siteintelgroup.com/Multimedia/is-fighters-in-salah-al-din-celebrate-pledge-of-khorasan-province-in-video-behead-police-official.html; “IS Fighters in Diyala Congratulate “Khorasan Province” for Pledging,” SITE Intelligence Group, February 20, 2015, https://ent.siteintelgroup.com/Multimedia/is-fighters-in-diyala-congratulate-khorasan-province-for-pledging.html.
[11] Seth G. Jones, “The Islamic State-Taliban Rivalry in Afghanistan,” Brookings’ Lawfare Blog, November 27, 2016, https://www.lawfareblog.com/islamic-state-taliban-rivalry-afghanistan.
[12] United Nations Security Council (UNSC), Twenty-Second Report of the Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team Submitted Pursuant to Resolution 2368 (2017) Concerning ISIL (Da’esh), Al-Qaida and Associated Individuals and Entities (S/2018/705), 6-17, July 27, 2018, https://undocs.org/S/2018/705.
[13] “English-Speaking IS Fighter in Khorasan Province Video Notes Presence of Indians and Russians in its Ranks,” SITE Intelligence Group, September 6, 2017, https://ent.siteintelgroup.com/Multimedia/english-speaking-is-fighter-in-khorasan-province-video-notes-presence-of-indians-and-russians-in-its-ranks.html; UNSC, “Twenty-Second Report of the Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team”; UNSC, “Ninth Report of the Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team.”
[14] “IS’ Khorasan Province Publishes Photos of Graduation from “Abu Umar al-Shishani” Training Camp,” SITE Intelligence Group, December 26, 2017, https://ent.siteintelgroup.com/Statements/is-khorasan-province-publishes-photos-of-graduation-from-abu-umar-al-shishani-training-camp.html.
[15] “Statement by Deputy Press Secretary Gordon Trowbridge on Strike Targeting an ISIL Leader in Afghanistan,” U.S. Department of Defense, August 12, 2016, https://dod.defense.gov/News/News-Releases/News-Release-View/Article/913820/statement-by-deputy-press-secretary-gordon-trowbridge-on-strike-targeting-an-is/.
[16] “Statement by Deputy Press Secretary Gordon Trowbridge on Strike Targeting an ISIL Leader in Afghanistan,” U.S. Department of Defense, August 12, 2016, https://dod.defense.gov/News/News-Releases/News-Release-View/Article/913820/statement-by-deputy-press-secretary-gordon-trowbridge-on-strike-targeting-an-is/ ; “U.S. Forces in Afghanistan Strike Islamic State Leader; Maintain Pressure on Terror Network,” NATO Resolute Support, September 2, 2018, https://rs.nato.int/news-center/press-releases/2018-press-releases/us-forces-in-afghanistan-strike-islamic-state-leader-maintain-pressure-on-terror-network.aspx.
[17] “IS’ Khorasan Province Fighter Rallies Colleagues, Promotes Support of “Caliphate” in Video,” SITE Intelligence Group, June 3, 2015, https://ent.siteintelgroup.com/Multimedia/fighter-in-is-khorasan-province-rallies-colleagues-promotes-support-of-caliphate-in-video.html.
[18] SITE Intelligence Group, “IS’ Khorasan Province Fighter Rallies Colleagues, Promotes Support of “Caliphate” in Video.”
[19] “IS’ Khorasan Province Claims Killing 100+ in Suicide Operation on Save the Children Office, Other Institutions in Jalalabad,” SITE Intelligence Group, January 24, 2018, https://ent.siteintelgroup.com/Statements/is-khorasan-province-claims-killing-100-in-suicide-operation-on-save-the-children-office-other-institutions-in-jalalabad.html.
[20] See, for example, “IS Video Promotes Afghanistan as Option for Immigration, Features Foreign Children and Adults,” SITE Intelligence Group, March 6, 2018, https://ent.siteintelgroup.com/Multimedia/is-video-promotes-afghanistan-as-option-for-immigration-features-foreign-children-and-adults.html.
[21] See, for example, Fayaz Bukhari, “Skirmishes in Indian Kashmir Leave Police Officer, Seven Militants Dead,” Reuters, September 11, 2016, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-india-kashmir-idUSKCN11H0PU; Bruce Riedel, “Modeled on Mumbai? Why the 2008 India Attack Is the Best Way to Understand Paris,” Brookings’ Markaz Blog, November 14, 2015, https://www.brookings.edu/blog/markaz/2015/11/14/modeled-on-mumbai-why-the-2008-india-attack-is-the-best-way-to-understand-paris/ ; See, for example, “IS Claims Killing Indian Intelligence Official in Kashmir,” , SITE Intelligence Group, September 10, 2018, https://ent.siteintelgroup.com/Statements/is-claims-killing-indian-intelligence-official-in-kashmir.html; “IS' Khorasan Province Claims 1 Indian Soldier Killed, 8 Wounded in Clash in Kashmir,” SITE Intelligence Group, June 22, 2018, https://ent.siteintelgroup.com/Statements/is-khorasan-province-claims-1-indian-soldier-killed-8-wounded-in-clash-in-kashmir.html.
[22] See, for example, “IS Claims Killing Indian Intelligence Official in Kashmir,” , SITE Intelligence Group, September 10, 2018, https://ent.siteintelgroup.com/Statements/is-claims-killing-indian-intelligence-official-in-kashmir.html; “IS' Khorasan Province Claims 1 Indian Soldier Killed, 8 Wounded in Clash in Kashmir,” SITE Intelligence Group, June 22, 2018, https://ent.siteintelgroup.com/Statements/is-khorasan-province-claims-1-indian-soldier-killed-8-wounded-in-clash-in-kashmir.html.
[23] “IS' Khorasan Province Cautions Muslims in Nangarhar from Approaching Election Centers,” SITE Intelligence Group, April 30, 2018, https://ent.siteintelgroup.com/Statements/is-khorasan-province-cautions-muslims-in-nangarhar-from-approaching-election-centers.html.
[24] “IS' Khorasan Province Issues Formal Communique for Election Day Attacks in Kabul and Nangarhar,” SITE Intelligence Group, October 23, 2018, https://ent.siteintelgroup.com/Statements/is-khorasan-province-issues-formal-communique-for-election-day-attacks-in-kabul-and-nangarhar.html; “IS' Khorasan Province Claims Inflicting 90 Casualties at Suicide Bombing at Election Rally in Nangarhar,” SITE Intelligence Group, October 2, 2018, https://ent.siteintelgroup.com/Statements/is-khorasan-province-claims-inflicting-90-casualties-at-suicide-bombing-at-election-rally-in-nangarhar.html.
[25] Data from the CSIS Transnational Threats Project’s 2018 report, The Evolving Terror Threat (forthcoming).
[26] UNSC, “Twenty-Second Report of the Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team.”
[27] “IS' Khorasan Province Shows "Joy" of Children for Orlando, Magnanville Attacks,” SITE Intelligence Group, June 15, 2016, https://ent.siteintelgroup.com/Jihadist-News/is-khorasan-province-shows-joy-of-children-for-orlando-magnanville-attacks.html ; “Fighters in IS' Khorasan Province Call for Lone-Wolf Attacks in West, Challenge U.S. to Put Boots on Ground,” SITE Intelligence Group, June 19, 2016, https://ent.siteintelgroup.com/Multimedia/fighters-in-is-khorasan-province-call-for-lone-wolf-attacks-in-west-in-video.html.
[28] Data is from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project, updated October 12, 2018, https://www.acleddata.com/data/.
[29] UNSC, “Twenty-Second Report of the Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team.”
[30] Data is from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project, updated October 12, 2018, https://www.acleddata.com/data/.
[31] See, for example, “IS’ Khorasan Province Claims Attack on Bus Transporting Ismailis in Karachi,” SITE Intelligence Group, May 13, 2015, https://ent.siteintelgroup.com/Jihadist-News/is-khorasan-province-claims-attack-on-bus-transporting-ismailis-in-karachi.html; “Anti-IS Jihadists Claim Group Killed Afghan Taliban’s Leader for Nangarhar,” SITE Intelligence Group, June 13, 2015, https://ent.siteintelgroup.com/Jihadist-News/anti-is-jihadists-claim-group-killed-afghan-taliban-s-leader-for-nangarhar.html; Amira Jadoon, Nakissa Jahanbani, and Charmaine Willis, “Challenging the ISK Brand in Afghanistan-Pakistan: Rivalries and Divided Loyalties.”
[32] See, for example, Najim Hahim and Rod Nordland, “Taliban Surge Routs ISIS in Northern Afghanistan,” New York Times, August 1, 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/01/world/asia/afghanistan-taliban-isis.html.
[33] Data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project, updated October 12, 2018, https://www.acleddata.com/data/.
[34] Ibid.
[35] Obaid Ali, “Qari Hekmat’s Island: A Daesh Enclave in Jawzjan?” Afghanistan Analysts Network, November 11, 2017, https://www.afghanistan-analysts.org/qari-hekmats-island-a-daesh-enclave-in-jawzjan/; Obaid Ali, “Non-Pashtun Taleban of the North (4): A case study from Jawzjan,” Afghanistan Analysts Network, September 18, 2017, https://www.afghanistan-analysts.org/non-pashtun-taleban-of-the-north-4-a-case-study-from-jawzjan/; SITE Intelligence Group, “IS Video Promotes Afghanistan as Option for Immigration, Features Foreign Children and Adults”; “Afghan and U.S. Special Operations Decimate IS-K in Northern Afghanistan,” NATO Resolute Support, April 15, 2018 https://rs.nato.int/news-center/press-releases/2018-press-releases/afghan-and-us-special-operations-decimate-isk-in-northern-afghanistan.aspx.
[36] “Afghan Taliban Again Boasts of Rendering IS an "Exemplary Defeat" in Northern Afghanistan, Charges U.S. with Backing IS,” SITE Intelligence Group, August 28, 2018, https://ent.siteintelgroup.com/Statements/afghan-taliban-again-boasts-of-rendering-is-an-exemplary-defeat-in-northern-afghanistan-charges-u-s-with-backing-is.html; “Afghan Taliban Documents in Video its Purging IS Fighters from Jowzjan's Darzab District,” SITE Intelligence Group, August 20, 2018, https://ent.siteintelgroup.com/Multimedia/afghan-taliban-documents-in-video-its-purging-is-fighters-from-jowzjan-s-darzab-district.html.
[37] Data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project, updated October 12, 2018, https://www.acleddata.com/data/.
[38] “Foreign Terrorist Organization Designation of ISIL - Khorasan (ISIL-K),” U.S. Department of State. January 14, 2016, https://www.state.gov/j/ct/rls/other/des/266511.htm; “Air Power Summary as of August 31, 2018,” U.S. Air Force Central Command Combined Air Operations Center, August 31, 2018, http://www.afcent.af.mil/Portals/82/Documents/Airpower%20summary/
Airpower%20Summary%20Aug%202018.pdf?ver=2018-10-21-035641-837.
[39] UNSC, “Twenty-second report of the Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team.”
